A layered analysis of the causes of future wars in West Asia

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Defense Futures studies , Faculty of Social Sciences , Command , and Military Staff of the Islamic Republic of Iran

2 PhD student of Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.

3 Master's degree in Defense Management, Command and Headquarters University of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army

Abstract

This study was conducted in order to identify the causes and factors of future wars in the West Asia region using the method of layered analysis of causes. First, the documents related to the subject were studied and reviewed. Then the concepts and words counted through a questionnaire to the sample community consisting of 66 experts were presented and the data obtained using SPSS and Excel software and descriptive statistical methods (calculation of mean and variance) and inference (estimation of confidence interval and calculation of statistics) chi-square test) was analyzed. Considering that the layered analysis of causes includes four layers of litany, causal systems, discourse (worldview) and myth or metaphor, to divide the causes in each of the layers from the duration of their being the cause of war and the number of opinions of the respondents regarding the correlation of future wars These components were used. Finally, by obtaining the opinions of the experts, the most important types of future wars were classified as hybrid wars, network-based war, influence-based war, and soft war. According to the findings, the most important causes of future wars in the West Asian region in the first layer (litany level) are power seeking, revenge and access to nuclear energy; In the second layer (level of social systems), the causes of occurrence in politics, technology and economy; In the third layer (worldview) the causes of religion, ideology and religion and in the fourth layer (metaphor or myth) language, self-conceit and different religious sects were classified.

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History

  • Receive Date: 04 July 2022
  • Revise Date: 11 November 2023
  • Accept Date: 16 March 2024

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