نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه علوم دریایی امام خمینی (ره)
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
The present study aims to identify the factors affecting the future developments in Central Asia and its impact on Iran's position in the region.This research is based on the purpose of "applied-developmental" type and based on the nature of "descriptive-survey" which has a "mixed" approach. Statistical Society; It includes experts with a history of activity in the region, of which 12 people in the qualitative section and 32 people in the quantitative section have been identified by snowball method and have been purposefully selected. In order to collect the data needed to compile the research literature, "library studies" using "fishmaking tools" and in order to collect real data, "field studies" using "semi-structured interviews" and "closed questionnaires" were used. They have been confirmed by experts in terms of apparent validity and content in terms of clarity and unambiguity of the items as well as the adequacy of quantity and quality. "Cronbach's alpha coefficient" of the questionnaire was 0.869 and "retest reliability of the test" of the interviews was 82%, which indicated acceptable reliability. In order to achieve the research goal; First, the factors influencing the developments in the region were counted by "qualitative content analysis" of the interviews and classified into economic, political, socio-cultural, security and geopolitical axes, and then a questionnaire was prepared and distributed to receive confirmation and rank their importance in influencing Iran's future situation. All quantified components were confirmed by quantitative data analysis using "descriptive parameters" and their importance was ranked using the "Shannon entropy" method.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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