نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشگاه جامع امام حسین(ع)-دانشگاه امام حسین(ع)
2 دانشگاه جامع امام حسین(ع)
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The Islamic Republic of Iran, as one of the effective actors in the South Caucasus scene, has a lot in common with the Republic of Azerbaijan. History, religion, common borders and the presence of relatives on both sides of the border are very effective potentials in the convergence of the two sides, which are rare in the relations of other governments. The available evidence shows that both countries have not been successful in regulating their relations. The main question of the article is what scenarios the future of relations between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan will face in the next 10 years.In response to this problem and by reviewing the research literature, the background of the relations between the two countries was studied and 20 influential factors (definite and indeterminate) in the relations between the two countries were extracted and after going through the eight stages of Schwartz's scenario writing, among the 12 scenarios found 3 desirable, possible and probable scenarios were identified.And finally, the scenario of peaceful coexistence was identified as the preferred and desirable scenario of Iran in the horizon of the next ten years.The results of the research show that the future of the relations between the two countries is mostly at the level of commercial and economic relations, and in order to revive the active political and social role of Iran in Azerbaijan, extensive changes in the attitude and macro policies of the country of Azerbaijan are necessary.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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