نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانش آموخته دکتری اقتصاد بخش عمومی دانشگاه لرستان
2 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Global geopolitical risk indicates geopolitical tensions and events that are a serious threat to global security and peace. Most countries in the world react to this issue by increasing defense spending. The importance of this issue for the countries of the Middle East region is twofold; Because this region plays an important role in global geopolitical risk. Based on this, in the current research, the short-term and long-term asymmetric effects of global geopolitical risk on Iran's defense spending have been investigated using a neoclassical model and annual data for the period of 1985-2021. For this purpose, first, the positive and negative impulses of global geopolitical risk have been extracted with the help of Granger and Yoon method. Then, using the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test, the existence of an asymmetric long-term equilibrium relationship has been confirmed; Finally, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) has been used to measure these asymmetric effects. The findings of this research show that in the short and long term, the positive impulses of the global geopolitical risk have increased defense spending and its negative impulses have decreased defense spending. But the increasing effect of positive global geopolitical risk impulses is greater than the decreasing effect of its negative impulses (confirming the asymmetric effect). According to other research results, Israel's defense spending has been the most important factor in increasing Iran's defense spending in the long term, and Saudi Arabia's defense spending has been the most important factor in increasing Iran's defense spending in the short term.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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