"Algorithmic Deterrence in the Age of Artificial Intelligence: The Evolution of Great Power Security Doctrine"

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Master's degree in International Relations from Allameh Tabatabaei University, Tehran

2 Professor, Department of International Relations, Allameh Tabatabaei University, Tehran

Abstract

The present study addresses the issue that the emergence of artificial intelligence is creating a paradigmatic transformation in security studies and challenging the classical concepts of deterrence. This article seeks to answer the main question of how algorithmic deterrence has transformed the security doctrine of great powers? To this end, the study proceeds with the hypothesis that the emergence of algorithmic deterrence, by changing the logic of deterrence from “retaliation” to “prediction”, has fundamentally transformed the security doctrine of great powers and created a new competition over information superiority and speed of decision-making. The research method used is descriptive-analytical using scenario writing and a comparative approach. The findings show that each of the powers has adapted to this transformation in a unique way: the United States has moved towards “integrated deterrence”, China towards “comprehensive national security” and “smart deterrence”, and Russia towards “cognitive warfare”. This algorithmic competition has led to strategic instability, reduced human response time, and increased ambiguity in attack attribution.

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History

  • Receive Date: 07 October 2025
  • Revise Date: 09 December 2025
  • Accept Date: 05 January 2026

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